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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Elche and Espanyol share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Regular Season - 26, as Elche and Espanyol drew 2-2 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Elche 1.77 xG and Espanyol 1.38 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Elche attack 0.94 / defence 1.09 against Espanyol attack 1.12 / defence 1.24, drawn from 25/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Elche 46% | Draw 24% | Espanyol 29%, with Elche to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Elche 56%, Espanyol 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Elche's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Espanyol's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Elche 1.00 PPG, Espanyol 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Elche (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights