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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Elche edge out Celta Vigo 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Elche beat Celta Vigo 2-1 at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Regular Season - 7, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Elche 1.21 xG and Celta Vigo 1.05 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Elche attack 0.85 / defence 0.88 against Celta Vigo attack 1.06 / defence 0.99, drawn from 6/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Elche 39% | Draw 30% | Celta Vigo 31%, with Elche to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 8% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Elche 17%, Celta Vigo 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Elche's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Celta Vigo's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Elche arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.83. That form edge translated into the three points. Celta Vigo shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights