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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Elche edge out Atletico Madrid 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Elche beat Atletico Madrid 3-2 at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Regular Season - 33, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Elche 1.40 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.16 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Elche beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Atletico Madrid outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Elche attack 0.93 / defence 1.06 against Atletico Madrid attack 0.97 / defence 0.97, drawn from 31/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Elche 42% | Draw 26% | Atletico Madrid 31%, with Elche to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Elche 58%, Atletico Madrid 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Elche's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Atletico Madrid's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Atletico Madrid arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.03. Form was overturned, with Elche winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Elche (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Atletico Madrid (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights