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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Celta Vigo and Villarreal share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadio Abanca Balaídos, Regular Season - 3, as Celta Vigo and Villarreal drew 1-1 in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Celta Vigo 1.19 xG and Villarreal 1.30 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Celta Vigo attack 0.89 / defence 1.07 against Villarreal attack 1.05 / defence 0.98, drawn from 41/40 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Celta Vigo 34% | Draw 27% | Villarreal 39%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Celta Vigo 58%, Villarreal 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Celta Vigo's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Villarreal's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Villarreal arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.35. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights