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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Celta Vigo run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Villarreal.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Celta Vigo beat Villarreal 3-0 at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos, Regular Season - 33, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Celta Vigo 1.21 xG and Villarreal 1.35 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Celta Vigo beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Villarreal landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Celta Vigo attack 1.00 / defence 0.99 against Villarreal attack 1.09 / defence 0.92, drawn from 70/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Celta Vigo 34% | Draw 27% | Villarreal 40%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Celta Vigo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Celta Vigo 58%, Villarreal 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Celta Vigo's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Villarreal's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Celta Vigo 1.22 PPG, Villarreal 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Celta Vigo win broke the near-deadlock. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Villarreal (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights