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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Celta Vigo run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Valencia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Celta Vigo beat Valencia 4-1 at Estadio Abanca Balaídos, Regular Season - 18, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Celta Vigo 1.57 xG and Valencia 0.99 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Celta Vigo beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Celta Vigo attack 0.93 / defence 1.05 against Valencia attack 0.88 / defence 1.22, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Celta Vigo 50% | Draw 27% | Valencia 23%, with Celta Vigo to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Celta Vigo 51%, Valencia 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Celta Vigo's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Valencia's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Celta Vigo 1.42 PPG, Valencia 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Celta Vigo win broke the near-deadlock. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm. Valencia (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights