🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Celta Vigo edge out Sevilla 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Celta Vigo beat Sevilla 1-0 at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos, Regular Season - 38, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Celta Vigo 1.92 xG and Sevilla 1.73 xG, a combined 3.64. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Celta Vigo fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Sevilla landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Celta Vigo attack 1.06 / defence 1.42 against Sevilla attack 1.06 / defence 1.20, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Celta Vigo 43% | Draw 22% | Sevilla 35%, with Celta Vigo to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Celta Vigo 55%, Sevilla 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Celta Vigo's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Sevilla's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Celta Vigo 1.41 PPG, Sevilla 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Celta Vigo win broke the near-deadlock. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Sevilla (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights