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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Celta Vigo and Real Sociedad share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadio Abanca Balaídos, Regular Season - 9, as Celta Vigo and Real Sociedad drew 1-1 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Celta Vigo 1.31 xG and Real Sociedad 1.00 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Celta Vigo attack 0.84 / defence 1.01 against Real Sociedad attack 0.85 / defence 1.09, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Celta Vigo 43% | Draw 29% | Real Sociedad 28%, with Celta Vigo to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Celta Vigo 54%, Real Sociedad 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Celta Vigo's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.

Real Sociedad's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Celta Vigo 1.33 PPG, Real Sociedad 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights