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Celta Vigo cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Real Sociedad.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Celta Vigo beat Real Sociedad 2-0 at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos, Regular Season - 18, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Celta Vigo 0.95 xG and Real Sociedad 0.99 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Celta Vigo beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Real Sociedad landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Celta Vigo attack 1.11 / defence 0.88 against Real Sociedad attack 0.99 / defence 0.61, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Celta Vigo 33% | Draw 31% | Real Sociedad 36%, with Real Sociedad to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Celta Vigo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Celta Vigo 58%, Real Sociedad 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Celta Vigo's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Real Sociedad's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Real Sociedad arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.13. Form was overturned, with Celta Vigo winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights