Celta Vigo 3-2 Real Betis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Celta Vigo at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Celta Vigo vs Real Betis encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Celta Vigo host Real Betis at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos in La Liga, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 8 February 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Celta Vigo — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Celta Vigo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Celta Vigo's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Celta Vigo are significantly better at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos than their overall form suggests.
Across all La Liga games this season, Real Betis have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Real Betis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Real Betis away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Celta Vigo at 0.90 PPG versus Real Betis's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Celta Vigo hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 7 previous encounters compared to 1 for Real Betis, with 2 draws in between.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Celta Vigo and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Celta Vigo trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Real Betis trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Celta Vigo 62% and Real Betis 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Celta Vigo 58% | Real Betis 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Celta Vigo 1.43 xG and Real Betis 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Celta Vigo attack 1.081 / defence 0.933 | Real Betis attack 0.870 / defence 0.944. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.120. Data: 60 Celta Vigo games / 60 Real Betis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Celta Vigo 49% | Draw 27% | Real Betis 24%. Fair-value odds: Celta Vigo 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Real Betis 4.17. Celta Vigo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Celta Vigo at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Celta Vigo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Celta Vigo 60% | Real Betis 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Celta Vigo vs Real Betis | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Estadio Abanca-Balaídos • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Feb 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Celta Vigo 49% | Draw 27% | Real Betis 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 45% | xG Celta Vigo 1.43 / Real Betis 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Celta Vigo attack 1.081 / def 0.933 | Real Betis attack 0.870 / def 0.944 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Celta Vigo (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Celta Vigo xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Real Betis xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Celta Vigo vs Real Betis kick off?
Celta Vigo vs Real Betis kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 8 February 2025 at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos.
What was the final score in Celta Vigo vs Real Betis?
Celta Vigo 3 - 2 Real Betis.
Where is Celta Vigo vs Real Betis being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos.
What competition is Celta Vigo vs Real Betis part of?
Celta Vigo vs Real Betis is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Celta Vigo vs Real Betis?
Our statistical model gives Celta Vigo a 49% chance of winning, Real Betis a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Celta Vigo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Celta Vigo vs Real Betis?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Celta Vigo and Real Betis will score (BTTS).
Will Celta Vigo vs Real Betis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Real Betis?
Record (7 meetings): Celta Vigo 4W | Draws 2 | Real Betis 1W.
What form are Celta Vigo and Real Betis in?
Celta Vigo (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Real Betis (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Celta Vigo's attack rating (1.08) and Real Betis's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Real Betis's attack versus Celta Vigo's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Celta Vigo Win
49%
2.03
27%
3.72
24%
4.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Celta Vigo xG
Total xG
2.34
0.91
Real Betis xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
4.19
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
24%
4.19
Win to Nil
20%
5.03
6%
17.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 12.5 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.0 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Celta Vigo vs Real Betis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Celta Vigo and Real Betis expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Celta Vigo and 0.91 for Real Betis, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Celta Vigo vs Real Betis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Celta Vigo have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 17W 15D 28L record — W-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Celta Vigo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Real Betis's form line: 21W 23D 16L from 60 games, 1.43 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-D. The sample for Real Betis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Celta Vigo on 1.10 PPG, Real Betis on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Celta Vigo have posted 1.47 PPG from 30 outings (12W 8D 10L).
On the road, Real Betis have gone 8W 11D 11L from 30 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Celta Vigo are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Real Betis are on 1.22 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Celta Vigo have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Celta Vigo
Blended
Real Betis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Celta Vigo and Real Betis in coming into this match?
Celta Vigo have gone 17W 15D 28L in their last 60 games (1.10 PPG), while Real Betis have gone 21W 23D 16L in their last 60 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Celta Vigo at home or Real Betis away?
Celta Vigo's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Celta Vigo at home: 1.47 PPG; Real Betis away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Celta Vigo or Real Betis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Celta Vigo have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Real Betis in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Celta Vigo and Real Betis runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Celta Vigo's record when hosting Real Betis specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Celta Vigo
4
Draws
1
Real Betis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Real Betis?
From 10 meetings on record, Celta Vigo have won 5, Real Betis have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Celta Vigo and Real Betis last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Real Betis 1-1 Celta Vigo.
Who has won more matches between Celta Vigo and Real Betis?
Celta Vigo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Celta Vigo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Real Betis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Celta Vigo 57%, Real Betis 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Celta Vigo) and 37% (Real Betis).
On the defensive side: Celta Vigo have failed to score in 27% of games; Real Betis in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Celta Vigo home games / Real Betis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Celta Vigo play Real Betis?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Celta Vigo's games and 53% of Real Betis's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Celta Vigo vs Real Betis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Celta Vigo's recent games and 37% of Real Betis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Celta Vigo and Real Betis tend to score early?
Celta Vigo have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Real Betis in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Celta Vigo edge out Real Betis 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Celta Vigo beat Real Betis 3-2 at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos, Regular Season - 23, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Celta Vigo 1.43 xG and Real Betis 0.91 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Celta Vigo beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Real Betis outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Celta Vigo attack 1.08 / defence 0.93 against Real Betis attack 0.87 / defence 0.94, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Celta Vigo 49% | Draw 27% | Real Betis 24%, with Celta Vigo to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Celta Vigo 58%, Real Betis 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Celta Vigo's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Real Betis's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Celta Vigo 1.10 PPG, Real Betis 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Celta Vigo win broke the near-deadlock. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Real Betis (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.