🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Celta Vigo run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Rayo Vallecano.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Celta Vigo beat Rayo Vallecano 3-0 at Estadio Abanca Balaídos, Regular Season - 20, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Celta Vigo 1.80 xG and Rayo Vallecano 0.91 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Celta Vigo beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rayo Vallecano landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Celta Vigo attack 1.10 / defence 1.03 against Rayo Vallecano attack 0.79 / defence 1.16, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Celta Vigo 57% | Draw 25% | Rayo Vallecano 18%, with Celta Vigo to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Celta Vigo 51%, Rayo Vallecano 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Celta Vigo's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Celta Vigo 1.47 PPG, Rayo Vallecano 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Celta Vigo win broke the near-deadlock. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Rayo Vallecano (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights