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Shock result as Rayo Vallecano defy the odds to beat Celta Vigo 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rayo Vallecano beat Celta Vigo 1-2 at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos, Regular Season - 37, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Celta Vigo 1.45 xG and Rayo Vallecano 0.99 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Rayo Vallecano outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Celta Vigo attack 1.19 / defence 1.01 against Rayo Vallecano attack 0.85 / defence 0.88, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Celta Vigo 48% | Draw 26% | Rayo Vallecano 26%, with Celta Vigo to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Rayo Vallecano win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Celta Vigo 58%, Rayo Vallecano 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Celta Vigo's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Celta Vigo 1.26 PPG, Rayo Vallecano 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rayo Vallecano win broke the near-deadlock. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rayo Vallecano (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.70 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights