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Shock result as Osasuna defy the odds to beat Celta Vigo 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Osasuna beat Celta Vigo 1-2 at Estadio Abanca Balaídos, Regular Season - 23, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Celta Vigo 1.54 xG and Osasuna 0.92 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Osasuna outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Celta Vigo attack 1.15 / defence 0.96 against Osasuna attack 0.86 / defence 0.91, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Celta Vigo 50% | Draw 29% | Osasuna 21%, with Celta Vigo to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Osasuna win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Celta Vigo 52%, Osasuna 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Celta Vigo's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Osasuna's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Celta Vigo 1.47 PPG, Osasuna 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osasuna win broke the near-deadlock. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Osasuna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.70 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights