Celta Vigo 1-2 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Celta Vigo at 50% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Celta Vigo vs Osasuna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Osasuna travel to Estadio Abanca Balaídos to take on Celta Vigo in La Liga (matchday 23). The game is scheduled for Friday 6 February 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Celta Vigo stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters, Celta Vigo have posted 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.00 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Osasuna — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Osasuna away from home: 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Celta Vigo carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 8 H2H matches we hold have produced 4 wins for Celta Vigo, 3 for Osasuna and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Oct 2025, ended Celta Vigo 3–2 Osasuna — a Celta Vigo win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Celta Vigo in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Osasuna in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 40% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Celta Vigo 65% and Osasuna 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Celta Vigo 52% | Osasuna 43%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Celta Vigo surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Osasuna have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 42% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Osasuna surrender HT leads in 42% of cases while Celta Vigo recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Celta Vigo 1.54 xG and Osasuna 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Celta Vigo attack 1.147 / defence 0.961 | Osasuna attack 0.864 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.108. Data: built from Celta Vigo's last 60 games and Osasuna's last 60.
Result probabilities: Celta Vigo 50% | Draw 29% | Osasuna 21%. Fair-value odds: Celta Vigo 1.99 | Draw 3.47 | Osasuna 4.76. Celta Vigo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Celta Vigo as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Celta Vigo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Celta Vigo 70% (last 10 home games) | Osasuna 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Celta Vigo vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, matchday 23 | Venue: Estadio Abanca Balaídos • Kick-off: Friday 6 February 2026 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Celta Vigo 50% | Draw 29% | Osasuna 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Celta Vigo 1.54 / Osasuna 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Celta Vigo attack 1.147 / def 0.961 | Osasuna attack 0.864 / def 0.914 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.108 • Poisson stance: Celta Vigo (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Celta Vigo xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Osasuna xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Celta Vigo vs Osasuna FAQs
What time does Celta Vigo vs Osasuna kick off?
Celta Vigo vs Osasuna kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 6 February 2026 at Estadio Abanca Balaídos.
What was the final score in Celta Vigo vs Osasuna?
Celta Vigo 1 - 2 Osasuna.
Where is Celta Vigo vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Abanca Balaídos.
What competition is Celta Vigo vs Osasuna part of?
Celta Vigo vs Osasuna is a La Liga fixture (matchday 23) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Celta Vigo vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Celta Vigo a 50% chance of winning, Osasuna a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Celta Vigo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Celta Vigo vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Celta Vigo and Osasuna will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Celta Vigo vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Celta Vigo's attack at 1.15x the league average against Osasuna's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Osasuna's attack versus Celta Vigo's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Celta Vigo's last 60 games and Osasuna's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Celta Vigo Win
50%
1.99
29%
3.47
21%
4.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Celta Vigo xG
Total xG
2.46
0.92
Osasuna xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
4.76
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
22%
4.65
Win to Nil
20%
5.00
5%
22.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 12.1 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.3 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Celta Vigo vs Osasuna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Celta Vigo vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Celta Vigo and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Celta Vigo and 0.92 for Osasuna, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Celta Vigo vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Celta Vigo come into this having played 60 games, going 24W 16D 20L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-D.
On the other side, Osasuna sit at 1.30 PPG from 60 outings (19W 21D 20L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Celta Vigo on 1.47 PPG, Osasuna on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Celta Vigo's home form reads 14W 8D 8L across their last 30 home games, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Osasuna have taken 0.70 points per game from their last 30 away games (3W 12D 15L). That's a step down from their 1.30 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Osasuna's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Celta Vigo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Celta Vigo are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.23 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Celta Vigo have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Celta Vigo
Blended
Osasuna
Blended
Celta Vigo (Home) vs Osasuna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Celta Vigo
Blended
Osasuna
Blended
❓ Celta Vigo vs Osasuna Form FAQs
What form are Celta Vigo and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Celta Vigo have gone 24W 16D 20L in their last 60 games (1.47 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 19W 21D 20L in their last 60 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Celta Vigo at home or Osasuna away?
Celta Vigo's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Celta Vigo at home: 1.67 PPG; Osasuna away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to January 2022. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was as recently as 27 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Osasuna have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 4 Feb 2024, when Celta Vigo won Osasuna 0-3 Celta Vigo.
Celta Vigo's record when hosting Osasuna specifically: 2W 0D 4L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Celta Vigo
1
Draws
5
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Celta Vigo vs Osasuna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Osasuna?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Celta Vigo have won 4, Osasuna have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Celta Vigo and Osasuna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 August 2026: Celta Vigo 1-2 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Celta Vigo and Osasuna?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Celta Vigo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 64% of those situations.
Osasuna see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Celta Vigo 63%, Osasuna 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Celta Vigo) and 30% (Osasuna).
On the defensive side: Osasuna in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Celta Vigo home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Celta Vigo vs Osasuna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Celta Vigo and Osasuna matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Celta Vigo's recent matches and 43% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Celta Vigo and Osasuna matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Celta Vigo's recent games and 30% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Celta Vigo and Osasuna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Celta Vigo's recent matches and 40% of Osasuna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Osasuna defy the odds to beat Celta Vigo 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna beat Celta Vigo 1-2 at Estadio Abanca Balaídos, Regular Season - 23, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Celta Vigo 1.54 xG and Osasuna 0.92 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Osasuna outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Celta Vigo attack 1.15 / defence 0.96 against Osasuna attack 0.86 / defence 0.91, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Celta Vigo 50% | Draw 29% | Osasuna 21%, with Celta Vigo to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Osasuna win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Celta Vigo 52%, Osasuna 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Celta Vigo's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Osasuna's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Celta Vigo 1.47 PPG, Osasuna 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osasuna win broke the near-deadlock. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Osasuna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.70 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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