Celta Vigo 1-0 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Celta Vigo at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Celta Vigo vs Osasuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Osasuna travel to Estadio Abanca-Balaídos to take on Celta Vigo. The game is scheduled for Friday 21 February 2025, 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Celta Vigo stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Celta Vigo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Celta Vigo have posted 5W 2D 3L at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Celta Vigo are significantly better at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos than their overall form suggests.
Osasuna — All Games: 1W 7D 2L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osasuna away from home this season: 1W 6D 3L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Celta Vigo) versus 1.00 (Osasuna). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Celta Vigo, 3 for Osasuna and 1 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2024, ended 2–3 with Osasuna winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Celta Vigo in-play tendencies (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Osasuna in-play tendencies (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Celta Vigo 63% versus Osasuna 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Celta Vigo 58% | Osasuna 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Celta Vigo 1.57 xG and Osasuna 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Celta Vigo attack 1.171 / defence 1.012 | Osasuna attack 0.799 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.426 / away 1.151. Data: 62 Celta Vigo games / 62 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Celta Vigo 52% | Draw 25% | Osasuna 22%. Fair-value odds: Celta Vigo 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Osasuna 4.55. Celta Vigo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Celta Vigo as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Celta Vigo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Celta Vigo 60% | Osasuna 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Celta Vigo vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Estadio Abanca-Balaídos • Kick-off: Friday 21 Feb 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Celta Vigo 52% | Draw 25% | Osasuna 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG Celta Vigo 1.57 / Osasuna 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Celta Vigo attack 1.171 / def 1.012 | Osasuna attack 0.799 / def 0.940 | league avg home 1.426 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Celta Vigo (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Celta Vigo xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Osasuna xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Celta Vigo vs Osasuna kick off?
Celta Vigo vs Osasuna kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 21 February 2025 at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos.
What was the final score in Celta Vigo vs Osasuna?
Celta Vigo 1 - 0 Osasuna.
Where is Celta Vigo vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos.
What competition is Celta Vigo vs Osasuna part of?
Celta Vigo vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Celta Vigo vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Celta Vigo a 52% chance of winning, Osasuna a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Celta Vigo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Celta Vigo vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Celta Vigo and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Celta Vigo vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Osasuna?
Record (6 meetings): Celta Vigo 2W | Draws 1 | Osasuna 3W.
What form are Celta Vigo and Osasuna in?
Celta Vigo (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Osasuna (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Celta Vigo's attack at 1.17x the league average against Osasuna's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Osasuna's attack versus Celta Vigo's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 2-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Celta Vigo Win
52%
1.92
25%
3.93
22%
4.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Celta Vigo xG
Total xG
2.50
0.93
Osasuna xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
4.48
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
21%
4.81
Win to Nil
21%
4.87
5%
21.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.0 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.4 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Celta Vigo vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Celta Vigo and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Celta Vigo and 0.93 for Osasuna, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Celta Vigo vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Celta Vigo come into this having played 62 games, going 18W 16D 28L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-D. The sample for Celta Vigo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Osasuna sit at 1.24 PPG from 62 outings (19W 20D 23L), a run that reads D-D-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Celta Vigo on 1.13 PPG, Osasuna on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Celta Vigo's home form reads 13W 8D 9L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.13 PPG overall — Celta Vigo are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Osasuna have taken 1.03 points per game from 30 outings (7W 10D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Celta Vigo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Celta Vigo are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.19 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Celta Vigo have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 62 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Celta Vigo
Blended
Osasuna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Celta Vigo and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Celta Vigo have gone 18W 16D 28L in their last 62 games (1.13 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 19W 20D 23L in their last 62 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Celta Vigo at home or Osasuna away?
Celta Vigo's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Celta Vigo at home: 1.57 PPG; Osasuna away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Celta Vigo and Osasuna runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 27 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Osasuna have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Feb 2024, when Celta Vigo won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Celta Vigo's record when hosting Osasuna specifically: 2W 0D 4L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Celta Vigo
1
Draws
5
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Osasuna?
From 10 meetings on record, Celta Vigo have won 4, Osasuna have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Celta Vigo and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 27 August 2026, when Celta Vigo 1-2 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Celta Vigo and Osasuna?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Celta Vigo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Celta Vigo 60%, Osasuna 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Celta Vigo) and 47% (Osasuna).
On the defensive side: Osasuna in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Celta Vigo home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Celta Vigo play Osasuna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Celta Vigo's games and 53% of Osasuna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Celta Vigo vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Celta Vigo's recent games and 47% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Celta Vigo and Osasuna tend to score early?
Celta Vigo have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Celta Vigo edge out Osasuna 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Celta Vigo beat Osasuna 1-0 at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos, Regular Season - 25, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Celta Vigo 1.57 xG and Osasuna 0.93 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Osasuna landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Celta Vigo attack 1.17 / defence 1.01 against Osasuna attack 0.80 / defence 0.94, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Celta Vigo 52% | Draw 25% | Osasuna 22%, with Celta Vigo to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Celta Vigo 58%, Osasuna 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Celta Vigo's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Osasuna's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Celta Vigo 1.13 PPG, Osasuna 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Celta Vigo win broke the near-deadlock. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Osasuna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.