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Shock result as Levante defy the odds to beat Celta Vigo 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Levante beat Celta Vigo 2-3 at Estadio Abanca Balaídos, Regular Season - 36, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Celta Vigo 1.98 xG and Levante 1.08 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Levante outscored their 1.08 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Celta Vigo attack 1.05 / defence 1.28 against Levante attack 0.73 / defence 1.24, drawn from 73/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Celta Vigo 58% | Draw 22% | Levante 20%, with Celta Vigo to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Levante win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Celta Vigo 46%, Levante 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Celta Vigo's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Levante's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Celta Vigo 1.43 PPG, Levante 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Levante win broke the near-deadlock. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Levante (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights