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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Celta Vigo edge out Leganes 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Celta Vigo beat Leganes 2-1 at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos, Regular Season - 27, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Celta Vigo 1.75 xG and Leganes 0.74 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Celta Vigo attack 1.11 / defence 0.95 against Leganes attack 0.69 / defence 1.09, drawn from 64/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Celta Vigo 62% | Draw 23% | Leganes 15%, with Celta Vigo to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Celta Vigo 62%, Leganes 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Celta Vigo's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Leganes's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Celta Vigo 1.27 PPG, Leganes 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Celta Vigo win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights