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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Celta Vigo and Las Palmas share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Celta Vigo and Las Palmas finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos, Regular Season - 29, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Celta Vigo 1.82 xG and Las Palmas 0.96 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Celta Vigo fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Celta Vigo attack 1.12 / defence 0.95 against Las Palmas attack 0.86 / defence 1.14, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Celta Vigo 58% | Draw 23% | Las Palmas 20%, with Celta Vigo to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Celta Vigo 58%, Las Palmas 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Celta Vigo's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Las Palmas's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Celta Vigo 1.21 PPG, Las Palmas 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights