Celta Vigo 1-0 Granada CF – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Celta Vigo at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Celta Vigo face Granada CF.

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Match Analysis

Celta Vigo host Granada CF at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos in La Liga (matchday 17). Kick-off is Saturday 16 December 2023 at 13:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Celta Vigo — last 10 games: 0W 6D 4L, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L D D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Celta Vigo have posted 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, Granada CF have recorded 0W 5D 5L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Granada CF's away record over their last 8 away games: 0W 1D 7L (0.12 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.

The form comparison is too close to call — 0.60 PPG (Celta Vigo) versus 0.50 (Granada CF). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Celta Vigo, 0 for Granada CF and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.5 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 1 May 2022, ended Celta Vigo 1–1 Granada CF — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Celta Vigo in-play tendencies (last 16 games, 8 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 75%; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

Granada CF in-play tendencies (last 16 games, 8 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 31% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Celta Vigo 56% and Granada CF 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Celta Vigo 38% | Granada CF 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Celta Vigo 1.51 xG and Granada CF 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Celta Vigo attack 0.741 / defence 1.156 | Granada CF attack 0.798 / defence 1.432. League average goals — home 1.427 / away 1.122. Celta Vigo's attack rating of 0.741 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.51. Granada CF's defence rating of 1.432 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Celta Vigo's projected output up. Granada CF's attack rating of 0.798 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.03. Data: built from Celta Vigo's last 54 games and Granada CF's last 16.

Result probabilities: Celta Vigo 46% | Draw 30% | Granada CF 24%. Fair-value odds: Celta Vigo 2.16 | Draw 3.33 | Granada CF 4.21. Celta Vigo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Celta Vigo as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Celta Vigo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 53% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Celta Vigo 60% (last 10 home games) | Granada CF 50% (last 8 away games).

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