Celta Vigo 1-0 Granada CF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Celta Vigo at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Celta Vigo vs Granada CF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Celta Vigo host Granada CF at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos in La Liga, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 16 December 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Celta Vigo — All Games: 0W 6D 4L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L D D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Celta Vigo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Celta Vigo have posted 1W 5D 4L at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all La Liga games this season, Granada CF have recorded 0W 5D 5L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Granada CF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Granada CF's away record: 0W 1D 7L from 8 road trips in La Liga this season (0.12 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.60 PPG (Celta Vigo) versus 0.50 (Granada CF). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Celta Vigo have won 1, Granada CF 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Celta Vigo in-play tendencies (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Granada CF in-play tendencies (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Celta Vigo 56% and Granada CF 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Celta Vigo 38% | Granada CF 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Celta Vigo 1.51 xG and Granada CF 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Celta Vigo attack 0.741 / defence 1.156 | Granada CF attack 0.798 / defence 1.432. League average goals — home 1.427 / away 1.122. Celta Vigo's attack strength of 0.741 is below the league average — the 1.51 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Granada CF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.432 — this is suppressing Celta Vigo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 Celta Vigo games / 16 Granada CF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Celta Vigo 46% | Draw 30% | Granada CF 24%. Fair-value odds: Celta Vigo 2.17 | Draw 3.33 | Granada CF 4.17. Celta Vigo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Celta Vigo as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Celta Vigo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Celta Vigo 60% | Granada CF 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Celta Vigo vs Granada CF | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Estadio Abanca-Balaídos • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Dec 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Celta Vigo 46% | Draw 30% | Granada CF 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Celta Vigo 1.51 / Granada CF 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Celta Vigo attack 0.741 / def 1.156 | Granada CF attack 0.798 / def 1.432 | league avg home 1.427 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Celta Vigo (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Celta Vigo xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Granada CF xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Celta Vigo vs Granada CF kick off?
Celta Vigo vs Granada CF kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 16 December 2023 at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos.
What was the final score in Celta Vigo vs Granada CF?
Celta Vigo 1 - 0 Granada CF.
Where is Celta Vigo vs Granada CF being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos.
What competition is Celta Vigo vs Granada CF part of?
Celta Vigo vs Granada CF is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Celta Vigo vs Granada CF?
Our statistical model gives Celta Vigo a 46% chance of winning, Granada CF a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Celta Vigo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Celta Vigo vs Granada CF?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Celta Vigo and Granada CF will score (BTTS).
Will Celta Vigo vs Granada CF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Granada CF?
Record (2 meetings): Celta Vigo 1W | Draws 1 | Granada CF 0W.
What form are Celta Vigo and Granada CF in?
Celta Vigo (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-D-D. Granada CF (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Celta Vigo's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Granada CF's defensive record (1.43x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. The same calculation in reverse, Granada CF's attack versus Celta Vigo's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Celta Vigo Win
46%
2.16
30%
3.33
24%
4.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Celta Vigo xG
Total xG
2.55
1.03
Granada CF xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
4.21
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
36%
2.82
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
16%
6.09
5%
19.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.2 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Celta Vigo vs Granada CF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Celta Vigo and Granada CF expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Celta Vigo and 1.03 for Granada CF, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Celta Vigo vs Granada CF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Celta Vigo come into this having played 16 games, going 1W 7D 8L for 0.62 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-D-D. The sample for Celta Vigo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Granada CF sit at 0.50 PPG from 16 outings (1W 5D 10L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Granada CF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Celta Vigo on 0.62 PPG, Granada CF on 0.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Celta Vigo's home form reads 0W 4D 4L across 8 games on their own ground, a 0.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Granada CF have taken 0.12 points per game from 8 outings (0W 1D 7L).
The Goals Picture
Celta Vigo are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Granada CF are on 1.25 scored and 2.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Granada CF in 69%.
Last 16 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Celta Vigo
Blended
Granada CF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Celta Vigo and Granada CF in coming into this match?
Celta Vigo have gone 1W 7D 8L in their last 16 games (0.62 PPG), while Granada CF have gone 1W 5D 10L in their last 16 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Celta Vigo at home or Granada CF away?
Celta Vigo's home record (0.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Celta Vigo at home: 0.50 PPG; Granada CF away: 0.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Celta Vigo and Granada CF runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Celta Vigo go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Celta Vigo's record when hosting Granada CF specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Celta Vigo
1
Draws
0
Granada CF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Granada CF?
From 4 meetings on record, Celta Vigo have won 3, Granada CF have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Celta Vigo and Granada CF last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2024, when Granada CF 1-2 Celta Vigo.
Who has won more matches between Celta Vigo and Granada CF?
Celta Vigo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Celta Vigo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Granada CF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Celta Vigo 50%, Granada CF 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Celta Vigo) and 50% (Granada CF).
On the defensive side: Celta Vigo have failed to score in 50% of games; Granada CF in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Celta Vigo home games / Granada CF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Celta Vigo play Granada CF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Celta Vigo's recent matches and 50% of Granada CF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Celta Vigo vs Granada CF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Celta Vigo's recent games and 50% of Granada CF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Celta Vigo and Granada CF tend to score early?
Celta Vigo have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Granada CF in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Celta Vigo edge out Granada CF 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Celta Vigo beat Granada CF 1-0 at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos, Regular Season - 17, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Celta Vigo 1.51 xG and Granada CF 1.03 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Granada CF landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Celta Vigo attack 0.74 / defence 1.16 against Granada CF attack 0.80 / defence 1.43, drawn from 54/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Celta Vigo 46% | Draw 30% | Granada CF 24%, with Celta Vigo to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Celta Vigo 38%, Granada CF 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Celta Vigo's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Granada CF's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Celta Vigo 0.62 PPG, Granada CF 0.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Celta Vigo win broke the near-deadlock. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Granada CF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.