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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Celta Vigo and Girona share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Celta Vigo and Girona finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Abanca Balaídos, Regular Season - 4, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Celta Vigo 1.61 xG and Girona 1.05 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Celta Vigo attack 0.88 / defence 1.06 against Girona attack 0.87 / defence 1.35, drawn from 42/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Celta Vigo 50% | Draw 25% | Girona 25%, with Celta Vigo to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Celta Vigo 56%, Girona 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Celta Vigo's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Girona's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Celta Vigo 1.34 PPG, Girona 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights