🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Celta Vigo cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Elche.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Celta Vigo beat Elche 3-1 at Estadio Abanca Balaídos, Regular Season - 34, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Celta Vigo 1.89 xG and Elche 1.36 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Celta Vigo beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Celta Vigo attack 0.98 / defence 1.31 against Elche attack 0.89 / defence 1.25, drawn from 71/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Celta Vigo 50% | Draw 22% | Elche 28%, with Celta Vigo to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Celta Vigo 46%, Elche 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Celta Vigo's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Elche's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Celta Vigo 1.33 PPG, Elche 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Celta Vigo win broke the near-deadlock. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm. Elche (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights