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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Celta Vigo and Atletico Madrid share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Celta Vigo and Atletico Madrid finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Abanca Balaídos, Regular Season - 8, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Celta Vigo 1.10 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.16 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Celta Vigo attack 0.82 / defence 1.04 against Atletico Madrid attack 0.98 / defence 0.91, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Celta Vigo 34% | Draw 29% | Atletico Madrid 37%, with Atletico Madrid to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Celta Vigo 56%, Atletico Madrid 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Celta Vigo's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Atletico Madrid's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Atletico Madrid arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights