Cadiz 0-1 Girona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Girona at 36% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cadiz vs Girona encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Cadiz welcome Girona to Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla in La Liga (matchday 9). Kick-off is Saturday 7 October 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Cadiz have gone 3W 4D 3L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Cadiz have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Girona — last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Girona have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Girona are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Cadiz have won 1, Girona 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 10 Feb 2023, ended Cadiz 2–0 Girona — a Cadiz win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Cadiz in-play and half-time data (last 46 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Girona in-play and half-time data (last 46 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cadiz 37% versus Girona 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cadiz 30% | Girona 61%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Cadiz surrender their half-time lead 46% of the time, while Girona have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cadiz 1.18 xG and Girona 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cadiz attack 0.866 / defence 0.803 | Girona attack 1.255 / defence 0.893. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.207. Girona have an above-average attack rating of 1.255, which lifts their away xG to 1.22. Data: built from Cadiz's last 46 games and Girona's last 46.
Result probabilities: Cadiz 34% | Draw 30% | Girona 36%. Fair-value odds: Cadiz 2.91 | Draw 3.39 | Girona 2.77. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Girona as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Girona offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Cadiz's last 10 home games and Girona's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Cadiz 30% (last 10 home games) | Girona 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cadiz vs Girona | Competition: La Liga, matchday 9 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla • Kick-off: Saturday 7 October 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cadiz 34% | Draw 30% | Girona 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Cadiz 1.18 / Girona 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Cadiz attack 0.866 / def 0.803 | Girona attack 1.255 / def 0.893 | league avg home 1.525 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Girona (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Cadiz xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Girona xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cadiz vs Girona FAQs
What time does Cadiz vs Girona kick off?
Cadiz vs Girona kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 7 October 2023 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What was the final score in Cadiz vs Girona?
Cadiz 0 - 1 Girona.
Where is Cadiz vs Girona being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What competition is Cadiz vs Girona part of?
Cadiz vs Girona is a La Liga fixture (matchday 9) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Cadiz vs Girona?
Our statistical model gives Cadiz a 34% chance of winning, Girona a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Girona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cadiz vs Girona?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Cadiz and Girona will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Cadiz vs Girona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cadiz's attack rating (0.87) and Girona's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Girona's attack versus Cadiz's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cadiz's last 46 games and Girona's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Girona Win
34%
2.91
30%
3.39
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Cadiz xG
Total xG
2.40
1.22
Girona xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
31%
3.25
Win to Nil
10%
9.82
11%
9.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 11.1 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.1 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cadiz vs Girona Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cadiz vs Girona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Cadiz and Girona expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Cadiz and 1.22 for Girona, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Cadiz vs Girona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 46 outings, Cadiz have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 12W 15D 19L record — W-L-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Girona's form line: 19W 11D 16L from 46 games, 1.48 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cadiz on 1.11 PPG, Girona on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cadiz have posted 1.52 PPG from their last 23 home games (9W 8D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.11 PPG overall — Cadiz are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Girona have gone 6W 8D 9L from their last 23 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Cadiz are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Girona are on 1.65 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Girona in 70%.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cadiz
Blended
Girona
Blended
Cadiz (Home) vs Girona (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cadiz
Blended
Girona
Blended
❓ Cadiz vs Girona Form FAQs
What form are Cadiz and Girona in coming into this match?
Cadiz have gone 12W 15D 19L in their last 46 games (1.11 PPG), while Girona have gone 19W 11D 16L in their last 46 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cadiz at home or Girona away?
Cadiz's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cadiz at home: 1.52 PPG; Girona away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Cadiz or Girona been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cadiz have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Girona in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2022. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent in our data was on 20 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Girona have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 20 Apr 2024, when Girona won Girona 4-1 Cadiz.
Cadiz's record when hosting Girona specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Cadiz
1
Draws
2
Girona
Recent Meetings
❓ Cadiz vs Girona H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Girona?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Cadiz have won 1, Girona have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Cadiz and Girona last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 April 2024: Girona 4-1 Cadiz.
Who has won more matches between Cadiz and Girona?
Girona have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cadiz see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cadiz 35%, Girona 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Cadiz) and 56% (Girona).
On the defensive side: Cadiz keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Cadiz have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cadiz home games / Girona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cadiz vs Girona Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cadiz and Girona matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Cadiz's recent matches and 74% of Girona's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cadiz and Girona matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Cadiz's recent games and 56% of Girona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cadiz and Girona matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 52% of Cadiz's recent matches and 74% of Girona's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Girona edge out Cadiz 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Girona beat Cadiz 0-1 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla, Regular Season - 9, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cadiz 1.18 xG and Girona 1.22 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cadiz fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cadiz attack 0.87 / defence 0.80 against Girona attack 1.25 / defence 0.89, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cadiz 34% | Draw 30% | Girona 36%, with Girona to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cadiz 30%, Girona 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cadiz's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Girona's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cadiz 1.11 PPG, Girona 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Girona win broke the near-deadlock. Cadiz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward. Girona (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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