🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Barcelona edge out Real Sociedad 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Barcelona beat Real Sociedad 2-1 at Camp Nou, Regular Season - 7, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Barcelona 2.68 xG and Real Sociedad 0.76 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Barcelona attack 1.67 / defence 0.80 against Real Sociedad attack 0.84 / defence 1.12, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Barcelona 77% | Draw 15% | Real Sociedad 8%, with Barcelona to win its most likely call at 77%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Barcelona 73%, Real Sociedad 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Barcelona's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Real Sociedad's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Barcelona arrived the stronger side — 2.36 PPG against 1.16. Form held, and they took the win. Barcelona (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 2.90 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights