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Shock result as Leganes defy the odds to beat Barcelona 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Leganes beat Barcelona 0-1 at Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys, Regular Season - 17, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Barcelona 2.46 xG and Leganes 1.03 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Barcelona fell 2.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Barcelona attack 1.43 / defence 1.00 against Leganes attack 0.90 / defence 1.20, drawn from 55/16 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Barcelona 69% | Draw 17% | Leganes 14%, with Barcelona to win its most likely call at 69%. Instead the game produced a Leganes win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Barcelona 88%, Leganes 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Barcelona's trading profile (16 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.

Leganes's trading profile (16 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Barcelona arrived the stronger side — 2.19 PPG against 0.94. Form was overturned, with Leganes winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Barcelona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 3.17 scoring average — below par going forward. Leganes (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights