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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Barcelona run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Girona.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Barcelona beat Girona 4-1 at Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys, Regular Season - 29, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Barcelona 2.24 xG and Girona 0.71 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Barcelona beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Barcelona attack 1.52 / defence 0.73 against Girona attack 0.81 / defence 1.03, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Barcelona 72% | Draw 17% | Girona 10%, with Barcelona to win its most likely call at 72%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Barcelona 67%, Girona 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Barcelona's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Girona's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Barcelona arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 1.74. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Barcelona (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.47 average — above their attacking norm. Girona (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights