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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Barcelona cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Alaves.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Barcelona beat Alaves 3-1 at Camp Nou, Regular Season - 14, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Barcelona 2.02 xG and Alaves 0.65 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Barcelona beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Barcelona attack 1.66 / defence 0.83 against Alaves attack 0.70 / defence 0.87, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Barcelona 70% | Draw 19% | Alaves 11%, with Barcelona to win its most likely call at 70%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Barcelona 76%, Alaves 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Barcelona's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Alaves's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Barcelona arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Alaves (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights