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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Atletico Madrid and Villarreal share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Regular Season - 21, as Atletico Madrid and Villarreal drew 1-1 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Madrid 1.81 xG and Villarreal 1.15 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Atletico Madrid fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Madrid attack 1.21 / defence 0.82 against Villarreal attack 1.22 / defence 1.07, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Atletico Madrid 53% | Draw 23% | Villarreal 24%, with Atletico Madrid to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Madrid 53%, Villarreal 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Atletico Madrid's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Villarreal's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Atletico Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 1.48. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Atletico Madrid (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights