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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

La Liga · Regular Season - 21

Kick-off

Sat 25 Jan 2025

15:15

Venue

Riyadh Air Metropolitano

Competition

La Liga

Spain

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Atletico Madrid Win

53%

Atletico Madrid

1.89

23%

Draw

4.34

24%

Villarreal

4.15

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

10.8%

Draw

Most likely

2 – 1

9.8%

Home win

1 – 0

9.4%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.81

Atletico Madrid xG

Total xG

2.96

1.15

Villarreal xG

53%
23%
24%
Atletico MadridDrawVillarreal

1.89

53%

Home win

4.34

23%

Draw

4.15

24%

Away win

Goals Markets

80%

Over 1.5

1.25

20%

Under 1.5

5.00

57%

Over 2.5

1.75

43%

Under 2.5

2.33

34%

Over 3.5

2.94

66%

Under 3.5

1.52

18%

Over 4.5

5.56

82%

Under 4.5

1.22

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

57%

BTTS Yes

1.75

43%

BTTS No

2.34

Clean Sheet

32%

Atletico Madrid

3.16

16%

Villarreal

6.12

Win to Nil

17%

Atletico Madrid

5.98

4%

Villarreal

25.38

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.2 5.9 3.4 1.3 0.4 0.1
1 9.4 10.8 6.2 2.4 0.7 0.2
2 8.5 9.8 5.6 2.2 0.6 0.1
3 5.1 5.9 3.4 1.3 0.4 0.1
4 2.3 2.7 1.5 0.6 0.2
5 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.812
λ Away (xG) 1.151
Total xG 2.963
League avg home goals 1.404
League avg away goals 1.147
Atletico Madrid attack strength 1.206
Atletico Madrid defence strength 0.825
Villarreal attack strength 1.216
Villarreal defence strength 1.070
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 58 / 58