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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Atletico Madrid cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Valladolid.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Atletico Madrid beat Valladolid 4-2 at Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Regular Season - 31, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Madrid 2.78 xG and Valladolid 0.84 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Atletico Madrid beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Valladolid outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Madrid attack 1.18 / defence 0.92 against Valladolid attack 0.73 / defence 1.78, drawn from 68/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Atletico Madrid 78% | Draw 14% | Valladolid 9%, with Atletico Madrid to win its most likely call at 78%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Madrid 40%, Valladolid 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Atletico Madrid's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Valladolid's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Atletico Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.53. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Atletico Madrid (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Valladolid (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights