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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Atletico Madrid edge out Valencia 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Atletico Madrid beat Valencia 2-1 at Metropolitano Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Madrid 2.52 xG and Valencia 0.76 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Madrid attack 1.46 / defence 0.81 against Valencia attack 0.83 / defence 1.27, drawn from 54/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Atletico Madrid 76% | Draw 15% | Valencia 9%, with Atletico Madrid to win its most likely call at 76%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Madrid 42%, Valencia 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Atletico Madrid's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Valencia's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Atletico Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.15. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights