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Prediction vindicated as Atletico Madrid edge out Real Sociedad 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Atletico Madrid beat Real Sociedad 3-2 at Metropolitano Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Madrid 1.78 xG and Real Sociedad 0.95 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Atletico Madrid beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Real Sociedad outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Madrid attack 1.24 / defence 0.85 against Real Sociedad attack 0.98 / defence 0.96, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Atletico Madrid 57% | Draw 24% | Real Sociedad 19%, with Atletico Madrid to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Madrid 44%, Real Sociedad 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Atletico Madrid's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Real Sociedad's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Atletico Madrid arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.27. Form held, and they took the win. Atletico Madrid (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights