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Dominant Atletico Madrid run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Real Sociedad.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Atletico Madrid beat Real Sociedad 4-0 at Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Regular Season - 35, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Madrid 1.96 xG and Real Sociedad 1.08 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Atletico Madrid beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Real Sociedad landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Madrid attack 1.30 / defence 0.96 against Real Sociedad attack 0.95 / defence 1.10, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Atletico Madrid 58% | Draw 22% | Real Sociedad 21%, with Atletico Madrid to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Madrid 51%, Real Sociedad 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Atletico Madrid's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.

Real Sociedad's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Atletico Madrid arrived the stronger side — 1.99 PPG against 1.43. That form edge translated into the three points. Atletico Madrid (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights