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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Atletico Madrid edge out Rayo Vallecano 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Atletico Madrid beat Rayo Vallecano 3-2 at Metropolitano Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Madrid 1.67 xG and Rayo Vallecano 0.87 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Atletico Madrid beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rayo Vallecano outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Madrid attack 1.16 / defence 0.83 against Rayo Vallecano attack 0.90 / defence 1.00, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Atletico Madrid 55% | Draw 27% | Rayo Vallecano 18%, with Atletico Madrid to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Madrid 42%, Rayo Vallecano 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Atletico Madrid's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Atletico Madrid arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Atletico Madrid (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rayo Vallecano (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights