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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

La Liga · Regular Season - 6

Kick-off

Wed 24 Sep 2025

20:30

Venue

Metropolitano Stadium

Competition

La Liga

Spain

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Atletico Madrid Win

55%

Atletico Madrid

1.82

27%

Draw

3.72

18%

Rayo Vallecano

5.51

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

13.2%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

11.5%

Draw

2 – 0

11.0%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.67

Atletico Madrid xG

Total xG

2.54

0.87

Rayo Vallecano xG

55%
27%
18%
Atletico MadridDrawRayo Vallecano

1.82

55%

Home win

3.72

27%

Draw

5.51

18%

Away win

Goals Markets

72%

Over 1.5

1.39

28%

Under 1.5

3.57

47%

Over 2.5

2.13

53%

Under 2.5

1.89

25%

Over 3.5

4.00

75%

Under 3.5

1.33

11%

Over 4.5

9.09

89%

Under 4.5

1.12

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

48%

BTTS Yes

2.06

52%

BTTS No

1.94

Clean Sheet

42%

Atletico Madrid

2.38

19%

Rayo Vallecano

5.31

Win to Nil

23%

Atletico Madrid

4.34

3%

Rayo Vallecano

29.26

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 7.9 6.9 3.0 0.9 0.2
1 13.2 11.5 5.0 1.4 0.3 0.1
2 11.0 9.6 4.2 1.2 0.3
3 6.1 5.3 2.3 0.7 0.1
4 2.6 2.2 1.0 0.3 0.1
5 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.669
λ Away (xG) 0.869
Total xG 2.538
League avg home goals 1.439
League avg away goals 1.159
Atletico Madrid attack strength 1.162
Atletico Madrid defence strength 0.830
Rayo Vallecano attack strength 0.903
Rayo Vallecano defence strength 0.997
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 43 / 43