🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Atletico Madrid edge out Osasuna 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Atletico Madrid beat Osasuna 1-0 at Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Regular Season - 19, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Madrid 1.79 xG and Osasuna 0.85 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Osasuna landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Madrid attack 1.26 / defence 0.89 against Osasuna attack 0.81 / defence 1.01, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Atletico Madrid 60% | Draw 23% | Osasuna 18%, with Atletico Madrid to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Madrid 55%, Osasuna 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Atletico Madrid's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.

Osasuna's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Atletico Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.25. Form held, and they took the win. Atletico Madrid (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Osasuna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights