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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Atletico Madrid and Elche share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Atletico Madrid and Elche finished level at 1-1 at Metropolitano Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Madrid 1.98 xG and Elche 0.95 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Atletico Madrid fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Madrid attack 1.29 / defence 0.93 against Elche attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 39/1 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Atletico Madrid 62% | Draw 21% | Elche 17%, with Atletico Madrid to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Madrid 100%, Elche 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Form vs Result

On form, Elche arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Atletico Madrid conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights