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Prediction vindicated as Atletico Madrid edge out Alaves 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Atletico Madrid beat Alaves 1-0 at Metropolitano Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Madrid 2.13 xG and Alaves 0.71 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Atletico Madrid fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Madrid attack 1.32 / defence 0.86 against Alaves attack 0.73 / defence 1.14, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Atletico Madrid 69% | Draw 21% | Alaves 10%, with Atletico Madrid to win its most likely call at 69%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Madrid 44%, Alaves 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Atletico Madrid's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.

Alaves's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Atletico Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.07. That form edge translated into the three points. Atletico Madrid (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Alaves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights