🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Villarreal defy the odds to beat Athletic Club 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Villarreal beat Athletic Club 1-2 at San Mamés, Regular Season - 31, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Athletic Club 1.41 xG and Villarreal 1.15 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Villarreal outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Athletic Club attack 0.93 / defence 1.01 against Villarreal attack 1.00 / defence 0.98, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Athletic Club 43% | Draw 27% | Villarreal 31%, with Athletic Club to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Villarreal win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Athletic Club 41%, Villarreal 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Athletic Club's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Villarreal's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Athletic Club 1.59 PPG, Villarreal 1.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Villarreal win broke the near-deadlock. Athletic Club (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights