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Dominant Athletic Club run riot with a 7-1 hammering of Valladolid.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Athletic Club beat Valladolid 7-1 at San Mamés Barria, Regular Season - 25, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Athletic Club 2.42 xG and Valladolid 0.54 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 7-1 for 8 actual goals. Athletic Club beat their projection by 4.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Athletic Club attack 1.12 / defence 0.69 against Valladolid attack 0.68 / defence 1.56, drawn from 62/24 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Athletic Club 79% | Draw 15% | Valladolid 6%, with Athletic Club to win its most likely call at 79%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Athletic Club 46%, Valladolid 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Athletic Club's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Valladolid's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Athletic Club arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 0.62. Form held, and they took the win. Athletic Club (home/away splits) scored 7 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm. Valladolid (home/away splits) shipped 7 against a 2.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights