Athletic Club 7-1 Valladolid – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Athletic Club (79%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Athletic Club face Valladolid.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Athletic Club host Valladolid at San Mamés Barria in La Liga, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 23 February 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Athletic Club stand at 6W 4D 0L from 10 La Liga matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Athletic Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Athletic Club at San Mamés Barria this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Valladolid — All Games: 2W 0D 8L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Valladolid, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valladolid's form when playing away from home: 1W 0D 9L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Athletic Club have the edge — a 1.60 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Athletic Club have won 2, Valladolid 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Athletic Club in-play tendencies (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Valladolid in-play tendencies (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Athletic Club 67% versus Valladolid 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Athletic Club 46% | Valladolid 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Athletic Club 2.42 xG and Valladolid 0.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Athletic Club attack 1.118 / defence 0.691 | Valladolid attack 0.677 / defence 1.564. League average goals — home 1.383 / away 1.154. Valladolid bring a strong defensive rating of 1.564 — this is suppressing Athletic Club's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Athletic Club's defence rating of 0.691 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 62 Athletic Club games / 24 Valladolid games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Athletic Club 79% | Draw 15% | Valladolid 6%. Fair-value odds: Athletic Club 1.27 | Draw 6.67 | Valladolid 16.67. The model has a clear lean to Athletic Club (79%) — a 73pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Athletic Club are the pick at 79% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 2.96 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates are neutral: Athletic Club 50% | Valladolid 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Athletic Club vs Valladolid | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: San Mamés Barria • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Feb 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Athletic Club 79% | Draw 15% | Valladolid 6% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 38% | xG Athletic Club 2.42 / Valladolid 0.54 • Poisson strength factors: Athletic Club attack 1.118 / def 0.691 | Valladolid attack 0.677 / def 1.564 | league avg home 1.383 / away 1.154 • Poisson stance: Athletic Club (79%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.42
Athletic Club xG
Expected Goals
0.54
Valladolid xG
38%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Athletic Club vs Valladolid kick off?
Athletic Club vs Valladolid kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 23 February 2025 at San Mamés Barria.
What was the final score in Athletic Club vs Valladolid?
Athletic Club 7 - 1 Valladolid.
Where is Athletic Club vs Valladolid being played?
The match is being played at San Mamés Barria.
What competition is Athletic Club vs Valladolid part of?
Athletic Club vs Valladolid is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Athletic Club vs Valladolid?
Our statistical model gives Athletic Club a 79% chance of winning, Valladolid a 6% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Athletic Club the favourite.
Will both teams score in Athletic Club vs Valladolid?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Athletic Club and Valladolid will score (BTTS).
Will Athletic Club vs Valladolid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Athletic Club and Valladolid?
Record (3 meetings): Athletic Club 2W | Draws 1 | Valladolid 0W.
What form are Athletic Club and Valladolid in?
Athletic Club (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Valladolid (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Athletic Club's attack rating (1.12) and Valladolid's defence rating (1.56), the model arrives at 2.42 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Valladolid's attack versus Athletic Club's defence, projects 0.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 3-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Athletic Club Win
79%
1.27
15%
6.87
6%
15.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
3 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.42
Athletic Club xG
Total xG
2.96
0.54
Valladolid xG
1.27
79%
Home win
6.87
15%
Draw
15.53
6%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.63
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
58%
1.72
9%
11.21
Win to Nil
46%
2.17
1%
174.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 6.8 | 1.8 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 2 | 15.2 | 8.2 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 12.2 | 6.6 | 1.8 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Athletic Club vs Valladolid?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Athletic Club and Valladolid expected to score?
The model projects 2.42 expected goals for Athletic Club and 0.54 for Valladolid, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Athletic Club vs Valladolid?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 79%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Athletic Club's recent record stands at 12W 9D 3L from 24 games, a 1.88 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Athletic Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Valladolid, meanwhile, have gone 4W 3D 17L across 24 games — 0.62 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Valladolid is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Athletic Club by 1.26 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Valladolid heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Athletic Club have managed 7W 4D 1L from 12 games — 2.08 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Valladolid's away record stands at 1W 0D 11L across 12 trips, a 0.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Athletic Club come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Athletic Club are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Valladolid are on 0.62 scored and 2.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Athletic Club have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 24 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Athletic Club
Blended
Valladolid
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Athletic Club and Valladolid in coming into this match?
Athletic Club have gone 12W 9D 3L in their last 24 games (1.88 PPG), while Valladolid have gone 4W 3D 17L in their last 24 (0.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Athletic Club at home or Valladolid away?
Athletic Club's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Athletic Club at home: 2.08 PPG; Valladolid away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Athletic Club and Valladolid runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Feb 2025, when Athletic Club won 7-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Athletic Club's record when hosting Valladolid specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Athletic Club
1
Draws
0
Valladolid
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Athletic Club and Valladolid?
From 4 meetings on record, Athletic Club have won 3, Valladolid have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Athletic Club and Valladolid last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2025, when Athletic Club 7-1 Valladolid.
Who has won more matches between Athletic Club and Valladolid?
Athletic Club have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Athletic Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Valladolid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Athletic Club 50%, Valladolid 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Athletic Club) and 75% (Valladolid).
On the defensive side: Athletic Club keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Valladolid in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Athletic Club home games / Valladolid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Athletic Club play Valladolid?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Athletic Club's recent matches and 50% of Valladolid's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Athletic Club vs Valladolid usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Athletic Club's recent games and 75% of Valladolid's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Athletic Club and Valladolid tend to score early?
Athletic Club have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Valladolid in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Athletic Club run riot with a 7-1 hammering of Valladolid.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Athletic Club beat Valladolid 7-1 at San Mamés Barria, Regular Season - 25, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Athletic Club 2.42 xG and Valladolid 0.54 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 7-1 for 8 actual goals. Athletic Club beat their projection by 4.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Athletic Club attack 1.12 / defence 0.69 against Valladolid attack 0.68 / defence 1.56, drawn from 62/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Athletic Club 79% | Draw 15% | Valladolid 6%, with Athletic Club to win its most likely call at 79%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Athletic Club 46%, Valladolid 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Athletic Club's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Valladolid's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Athletic Club arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 0.62. Form held, and they took the win. Athletic Club (home/away splits) scored 7 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm. Valladolid (home/away splits) shipped 7 against a 2.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.