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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Real Madrid run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Athletic Club.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Real Madrid beat Athletic Club 0-3 at San Mamés, Regular Season - 19, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Athletic Club 1.18 xG and Real Madrid 1.25 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Athletic Club fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Real Madrid outscored their 1.25 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Athletic Club attack 0.86 / defence 0.90 against Real Madrid attack 1.23 / defence 0.99, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Athletic Club 35% | Draw 27% | Real Madrid 38%, with Real Madrid to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Athletic Club 36%, Real Madrid 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Athletic Club's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Real Madrid's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Real Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.73. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Athletic Club (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Real Madrid (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.81 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights