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Athletic Club cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Rayo Vallecano.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Athletic Club beat Rayo Vallecano 3-1 at San Mamés Barria, Regular Season - 31, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Athletic Club 1.19 xG and Rayo Vallecano 0.79 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Athletic Club beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Athletic Club attack 1.20 / defence 0.72 against Rayo Vallecano attack 0.87 / defence 0.76, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Athletic Club 45% | Draw 30% | Rayo Vallecano 24%, with Athletic Club to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Athletic Club 41%, Rayo Vallecano 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Athletic Club's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Athletic Club arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.15. That form edge translated into the three points. Athletic Club (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.03 average — above their attacking norm. Rayo Vallecano (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights