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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Athletic Club edge out Osasuna 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Athletic Club beat Osasuna 1-0 at San Mamés, Regular Season - 33, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Athletic Club 1.31 xG and Osasuna 1.08 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Osasuna landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Athletic Club attack 0.90 / defence 1.08 against Osasuna attack 0.89 / defence 0.94, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Athletic Club 42% | Draw 27% | Osasuna 30%, with Athletic Club to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Athletic Club 42%, Osasuna 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Athletic Club's trading profile (69 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Osasuna's trading profile (69 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Athletic Club 1.57 PPG, Osasuna 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Athletic Club win broke the near-deadlock. Athletic Club (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights