🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Athletic Club edge out Mallorca 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Athletic Club beat Mallorca 2-1 at San Mamés, Regular Season - 8, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Athletic Club 1.43 xG and Mallorca 0.95 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Athletic Club attack 0.93 / defence 0.93 against Mallorca attack 0.89 / defence 1.08, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Athletic Club 47% | Draw 29% | Mallorca 24%, with Athletic Club to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Athletic Club 36%, Mallorca 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Athletic Club's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Mallorca's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Athletic Club arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.18. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights