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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

La Liga · Regular Season - 8

Kick-off

Sat 4 Oct 2025

17:30

Venue

San Mamés

Competition

La Liga

Spain

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Athletic Club Win

47%

Athletic Club

2.12

29%

Draw

3.50

24%

Mallorca

4.13

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

13.2%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

12.6%

Draw

2 – 0

9.4%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.43

Athletic Club xG

Total xG

2.38

0.95

Mallorca xG

47%
29%
24%
Athletic ClubDrawMallorca

2.12

47%

Home win

3.50

29%

Draw

4.13

24%

Away win

Goals Markets

69%

Over 1.5

1.45

31%

Under 1.5

3.23

42%

Over 2.5

2.38

58%

Under 2.5

1.72

22%

Over 3.5

4.55

78%

Under 3.5

1.28

9%

Over 4.5

11.11

91%

Under 4.5

1.10

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

48%

BTTS Yes

2.10

52%

BTTS No

1.91

Clean Sheet

39%

Athletic Club

2.59

24%

Mallorca

4.17

Win to Nil

18%

Athletic Club

5.48

6%

Mallorca

17.25

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 9.3 8.8 4.2 1.3 0.3 0.1
1 13.2 12.6 6.0 1.9 0.5 0.1
2 9.4 9.0 4.3 1.4 0.3 0.1
3 4.5 4.3 2.0 0.6 0.2
4 1.6 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.1
5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.429
λ Away (xG) 0.951
Total xG 2.380
League avg home goals 1.423
League avg away goals 1.145
Athletic Club attack strength 0.932
Athletic Club defence strength 0.929
Mallorca attack strength 0.894
Mallorca defence strength 1.077
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 45 / 45