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Prediction vindicated as Athletic Club edge out Las Palmas 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Athletic Club beat Las Palmas 1-0 at San Mamés Barria, Regular Season - 33, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Athletic Club 1.94 xG and Las Palmas 0.90 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Athletic Club fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Las Palmas landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Athletic Club attack 1.30 / defence 0.74 against Las Palmas attack 0.97 / defence 1.13, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Athletic Club 62% | Draw 21% | Las Palmas 17%, with Athletic Club to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Athletic Club 41%, Las Palmas 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Athletic Club's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

Las Palmas's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Athletic Club arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.03. That form edge translated into the three points. Athletic Club (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Las Palmas (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights