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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Athletic Club and Girona share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Athletic Club and Girona finished level at 1-1 at San Mamés, Regular Season - 6, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Athletic Club 1.78 xG and Girona 0.91 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Athletic Club attack 0.98 / defence 0.93 against Girona attack 0.88 / defence 1.24, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Athletic Club 57% | Draw 24% | Girona 18%, with Athletic Club to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Athletic Club 37%, Girona 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Athletic Club's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Girona's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Athletic Club arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights