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Dominant Athletic Club run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Girona.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Athletic Club beat Girona 3-0 at San Mamés Barria, Regular Season - 23, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Athletic Club 1.35 xG and Girona 0.78 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Athletic Club beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Athletic Club attack 0.99 / defence 0.74 against Girona attack 0.94 / defence 0.96, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Athletic Club 50% | Draw 28% | Girona 22%, with Athletic Club to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Athletic Club 43%, Girona 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Athletic Club's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

Girona's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Athletic Club 1.82 PPG, Girona 1.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Athletic Club win broke the near-deadlock. Athletic Club (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Girona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights